Independent Financial Economist

ABOUT KATE

REAL ESTATE RISK ANALYSIS • FINANCIAL ECONOMICS • ASSET ALLOCATION

Kate Gimblett is an Independent Financial Economist with over three decades experience in international capital markets. Her primary focus is real estate capital markets, risk management for real estate exposures and the interaction between real estate markets and other major asset classes.

As an independent consultant with partner level fund management and senior strategy experience in investment banking, Kate helps firms to obtain the information and analysis they need.

Independent Consulting, Research and Strategic Advice

KATE'S PROFILE

Kate Gimblett has worked as an analyst and strategist in every major asset class – international fixed income, currencies, equities, venture capital and commercial real estate. Her wide ranging experience gives her an unusually broad perspective on the issues that confront managers and regulators today.

RECENT PUBLICALY AVAILABLE RESEARCH COMMISSION

The Outlook for UK Development Finance 2015

Sponsored by the Investment Property Forum (IPF) research programme 2015

This evidence-based research explores the availability and pricing of debt finance for UK real estate development. The paper examines the terms available for UK developments across all sectors, regions and types of developer. It also explores the impact of bank regulation on development lending. The study includes forecasts for the amount of finance to be extended in 2015 and the outlook for the market over the next twelve months.

The all new data set was sourced using structured interviews with over 70 market participants. The lenders covered include UK and foreign banks, alternative lending platforms, debt funds and peer to peer lending platforms. The developers covered include UK REITS, listed property companies, unlisted property companies, insurers, private equity funds and unlisted property funds.

UK Development Finance Review 2015.

Download Publication

Also see The Financial Times article
"Lenders’ appetite for offering development finance rises sharply
By Kate Allen

NOW
2014
Various projects including a financial innovation study on Financing Town Centre Regeneration using REIT-type structures

Previous Long Term Consultancy Appointments

2013
2007
Consultant to IPD

A seven year consultancy appointment that resulted in a new range of IPD risk management products and services targeted at UK and European commercial real estate debt markets.

2006
2003
Consultant to the Urban Land Institute

A three year consultancy appointment which delivered a new annual research publication with Europe-wide analysis of real estate markets for the ULI Europe and PwC. The survey-based report, ‘Emerging Trends in Real Estate – Europe’, remains the ULI/PwC flagship report with findings that are widely reported in the press each year across the UK and Europe.

Previous Positions

1998
1996
Gartmore Investment Management

Client Services, Asset Allocation and Investment Communications.

1994
1992
Brinson Partners Investment Management

Partner – International Fixed Income and Currency Strategy.

1991
1989
James Capel & Co. (HSBC Group)

Senior UK Equity Strategist.

1988
1986
Orion Royal Bank (RBC Group)

International Fixed Income and Currency Strategist.

1986
Crown Agents Treasury & Investment Service

Financial Economist - International Fixed Income and Equity Markets.

1985
1984
Venture Link Ltd

Venture Capital Investment Analyst.

1982
International Monetary Fund

Capital Markets Department, Washington DC.

1981
1979
International Finance Corporation

Development Department and Corporate Finance Department.

1978
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

European Monetary Union Study, Washington DC.

EDUCATION

1984
1979
Corpus Christi College, Oxford University

Post-Graduate Research in International Finance.

1978
1974
University of California Berkeley and Santa Cruz

Services

"The use of point-in-time probability of default for the calculation risk-weighted assets is inherently pro-cyclical when applied to real estate debt exposures."

Kate Gimblett

Consultancy

Kate Gimblett tackles a wide range of issues – issues that are often characterised by complexity. She frequently works in tandem with the client’s in-house teams or other external consultants when multiple skill sets will provide the best solution. If an external team is required it can be drawn from either Kate's own network of expert contacts or those of the client. Kate will analyse the target market, assist in the creation of new products or services and provide strategic advice.

Research and Thought Leadership

Kate offers businesses and public entities a cost-effective extension to their internal research capabilities. Research briefs may range from a focussed evidence-based analysis to ‘think pieces’ or a major study to enhance the client’s brand identification with industry thought leadership.

Survey Design, Execution and Analysis of Results

Kate has extensive experience in designing and executing both questionnaire and interview-based surveys. On completion of a survey, a careful written analysis of the resulting information is produced and results presentations are provided. These survey-based studies deliver valuable insights that are targeted to the requirements of the client.

Briefings

Kate can deliver monthly, quarterly or one-off briefings on a wide range of subjects. She has recently presented on issues such as regulatory slotting, stress testing real estate exposures, the real estate risk cycle and refinancing risk.

Articles for In-House Client Publications

Kate will deliver clear, accessible written pieces on topics of relevance to your clients for your in-house publication. Kate writes on a wide range of subjects encompassing financial, economic, risk management and regulatory issues.

Conferences

Kate has addressed conferences and client events across Europe and the UK. She is available to speak at events anywhere in the world.

Publications

EVIDENCE-BASED ANALYSIS

The Outlook for UK Development Finance 2015
Sponsored by the Investment Property Forum (IPF) research programme 2015

This evidence-based research explores the availability and pricing of debt finance for UK real estate development. The paper examines the terms available for UK developments across all sectors, regions and types of developer. It also explores the impact of bank regulation on development lending. The study includes forecasts for the amount of finance to be extended in 2015 and the outlook for the market over the next twelve months.

The all new data set was sourced using structured interviews with over 70 market participants. The lenders covered include UK and foreign banks, alternative lending platforms, debt funds and peer to peer lending platforms. The developers covered include UK REITS, listed property companies, unlisted property companies, insurers, private equity funds and unlisted property funds.

Download Publication

IPD UK Slotting Simulation report

The Slotting Approach to IPRE Risk Weighted Capital
A UK Simulation Study Using IPD Data

This evidence-based analysis of slotting was undertaken to inform the debate on pending changes in the UK regulation of property lending. It was co-authored by Kate Gimblett and Malcolm Frodsham for IPD.

The study uses property data from the IPD databank to simulate what would happen to risk-weighted capital if slotting were to be in force during a property slump identical to 2007-2011. The study is based on the actual performance of 3,442 UK commercial property assets initially valued at £56.6 billion.

The results quantify the mismatch between risk-weighted capital and downturn losses using a clearly defined analytical framework. They also underline the potential unintended consequences for both banks and the wider commercial property markets.

View Report

IPD Solvency II Review

The IPD Solvency II Review: Informing a New Regulatory Framework for Real Estate

This detailed review of the Solvency ll risk-based regulatory framework proposed for defining insurance company capital adequacy focuses specifically on real estate. It was funded by a consortium of seven key trade bodies and authored by Ian Cullen, Malcolm Frodsham, Mark Clacy-Jones and Kate Gimblett for IPD, with specialist inputs from Professor Tony Key of the Cass Business School and Dr Stephen Devaney of the University of Aberdeen.

This detailed review of the Solvency ll risk-based regulatory framework proposed for defining insurance company capital adequacy focuses specifically on real estate. It was funded by a consortium of seven key traThe results showed that a key Solvency II proposal – to apply a 25% capital adequacy requirement for insurance company real estate investments – could prudently be reduced to no higher than 15% if driven off the fullest possible pan-European property performance record.

This detailed review of the Solvency ll risk-based regulatory framework proposed for defining insurance company capital adequacy focuses specifically on real estate. It was funded by a consortium of seven key traThese results were supported by Kate Gimblett's survey of 18 leading European insurance companies. This survey found that all Euro-zone domiciled insurers considered the 25% capital charge for property under the Standard Formula to be too high and a large majority found the correlations inconsistent with their own calculations.

View Report

Emerging Trends in Real Estate - Europe

Emerging Trends in Real Estate - Europe
Europe in 2004, 2005 and 2006

Kate Gimblett created the pan-European annual market study Emerging Trends in Real Estate - Europe for the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PwC in collaboration with Mark Charlton.

Kate was the principal author of this study for the first three years of publication from 2004-2006.

View 2006 Report View 2005 Report View 2004 Report

CONTACT KATE

GET IN TOUCH

+44 (0)7976 717388
+44 (0)20 7341 9932

kate@kategimblett.com